The quick take
If you’re judging by the most recent evidence, Arsenal hold the edge right now. They won 1–0 at Old Trafford on August 17, 2025 (Riccardo Calafiori nodding in from a Declan Rice corner), and they also won 1–0 there late last season. That’s back-to-back league wins at United’s place—never a trivial feat.
Where both clubs are coming from
• Last season (2024–25): Liverpool won the title; Arsenal finished runners-up; Manchester United slumped to 15th. That gulf in league performance frames the current “upper hand.”
• The bosses: Mikel Arteta is still in charge of Arsenal (he signed on through 2027). United appointed Rúben Amorim in November 2024 and he’s now shaping his first full campaign.
The latest clash (and what it told us)
Arsenal’s winner at Old Trafford came from a set play: Rice’s wicked inswinger, Calafiori on the keeper’s toes. United argued about contact; the goal stood. Whether you pin it on Altay Bayındır’s positioning or Arsenal’s clever blocking, the pattern matters: Arsenal are very good at set pieces, and they leaned on that strength again.
For context, Arsenal were among the Premier League’s elite for set-piece output under Arteta, with specialist work paying off in recent seasons.
Recent head-to-head trend
Zoom out and you see a gentle tilt toward Arsenal:
• Sep 2023: Arsenal 3–1 United (league)
• May 12, 2024: United 0–1 Arsenal (league, Old Trafford)
• Jan 2025: Arsenal 1–1 United (United advanced on penalties, FA Cup)
• Aug 17, 2025: United 0–1 Arsenal (league, Old Trafford)
That’s two straight league wins at Old Trafford for Arsenal and solid momentum overall, even if the FA Cup tie went United’s way on pens.
Who strengthened better this summer?
• Arsenal: Added a headline striker in Viktor Gyökeres (a classic “Premier League-ready” profile) to go with last year’s pickup Riccardo Calafiori, who promptly scored the opener this season.
• Manchester United: Brought in Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo—both officially announced by the clubs—and they’ve rebuilt the spine across the last 12 months with Leny Yoro, Matthijs de Ligt, and Manuel Ugarte. The pieces look better; the chemistry needs time.
Styles make fights
• Arsenal: Well-drilled structure, suffocating out of possession, and ruthless on rehearsed patterns (including corners). When they’re on song, they control territory and throttle transitions.
• United under Amorim: High-energy press, more direct running, and width from wide forwards. The opener showed more aggression (and more fun, per the man himself), but the cutting edge wasn’t there yet.
The verdict: who has the upper hand—today?
Arsenal. Results back it up (two straight league wins at Old Trafford and a higher 2024–25 finish), their core is settled, and their set-piece edge travels well. United look improved on paper and were competitive in the opener, but turning “promising spells” into points is the next step.
What would swing it the other way?
• Time under Amorim: Cohesion between Cunha–Mbeumo (and the rest of the attack) plus Ugarte knitting transitions could change the picture fast.
• Goalkeeping stability: The opener’s decisive moment was at the keeper’s elbow. Clean that up, and one-goal games flip.
Final thoughts
As of mid-August 2025, Arsenal are the safer bet in this rivalry. But if United’s new signings click and Amorim’s ideas bed in, the gap can shrink quickly—and then this debate gets a lot spicier.